NIL Implications on the MLB Draft: Why College Baseball’s Decision Tree is Changing
Image Attribution: MLB.com
Introduction
A decade ago, the choice was simpler for college baseball athletes: get drafted, take the bonus, start the pro clock. Now, college baseball NIL has introduced something baseball amateurs rarely had; financial runway. On top of this, when you include modern player development technology (pitch design, strength, biomech, hitting tech) offered by most Division One baseball programs, the MLB Draft isn’t just a launch point anymore. For a growing slice of players, it’s a negotiation.
The Old Model: Bonus Now, Uncertainty Later
MLB’s draft economics are steeply tiered. At the top, money is life-changing. In 2025, the No. 1 pick slot value was reported at $11,075,900, and MLB’s overall draft bonus pools totaled $350,357,700 according to Baseball America. This is almost a 5% increase from the previous year, however, despite most other professional drafts, the current MLB draft has 20 rounds with the opportunity to also select players directly out of high school.
Minor League Baseball Economics
Once you slide into the later rounds, the calculus shifts quickly. Here’s the part fans often miss: the early pro grind doesn’t pay like people assume. Baseball America’s 2025 minimums list Low-A at $26,840, Double-A at $30,250, and Triple-A at $36,590 (annualized minimums). Players who sign outside the top rounds often trade leverage for a modest bonus, then enter a pro system where the median outcome is still never reaching the MLB.
A Simple Expected-Value Framework
Think of both the decision for high school athletes to enter college vs the draft AND college athletes choosing college vs the draft as two paths with varying opportunity costs:
Sign now EV = Signing bonus + (expected minor-league earnings) + (small probability of MLB earnings). This option forfeits potential exposure and schooling but includes playing stronger, more mature competition starting the professional development timeline earlier.
College EV = NIL income + (development gains that may increase future draft position) − injury/underperformance risk. Forfeiting guaranteed salary, but with leveraging development tools and schooling while still potentially receiving income.
The key isn’t that NIL will or even can replace a draft bonus, it’s that NIL can create a more risk averse option where if a player wants to bet on themselves and their development, they can move up a round or two. One important note is that NIL and salary are not directly comparable. For example 500k worth of NIL is much different than 500k worth of salary, since salary is guaranteed and includes stuff such as insurances and other benefits that increase the value of being under salary.
Future Decision Making Process
NIL doesn’t just add money to college baseball, it changes bargaining power. The biggest winners may not be first-rounders; it’s the draft middle class that can now afford to bet on player development and re-enter the MLB Draft with better data, better tools, and better leverage.
References:
Baseball America (April 15, 2025). “How Much Are Minor League Baseball Players Paid In 2025?”
Baseball America (July 9, 2025). “2025 MLB Draft: Bonus Pools, Slot Values FOr Each Team”
IRS (2025). “Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) Income”
MLB (September 16, 2025). “Introducing the Top 20 ge prospects in the 2026 Draft Class”
